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We Don’t Make the Models You Use… We Make the Models You Use Better

May 31st, 2023 No comments

In the world of brand data analytics, models are expected to provide consistent predictive, decision-support to grow the business.

Traditional models often fall short of delivering the full potential they promise. They lack the ability to ask the right questions, suffer from incomplete and inaccurate data, and fail to provide insights that drive the full potential of business opportunities. However, there is a solution that bridges this gap and enhances the performance of these models. Welcome to the world of MSW Enhanced Models, where the focus is on improving accuracy, understanding consumer behavior, and addressing the shortcomings of current behavioral modeling with consistently repeatable business results.

Traditional Models: Limitations and Challenges

Traditional models have their limitations, and these limitations can hinder their effectiveness in providing actionable insights. One of the major drawbacks is their failure to ask the right questions. They often focus on narrow or overly broad questions that fail to capture the nuances necessary for driving business growth. Without asking the right questions, these models miss out on valuable opportunities, leading to misguided strategies and missed opportunities.

Another challenge lies in the quality of data used in traditional models. They often rely on incomplete and transactional data without considering the behavioral root cause. This limits their perspective to top and perhaps bottom sales funnel prediction.  But even that limited, short-term, perspective may be flawed as a predictive tool.  For instance, if a model only looks at purchase data without considering the underlying motivations and preferences of consumers, it may fail to provide accurate and meaningful insights. Inaccurate or incomplete data can lead to flawed inferences and incorrect conclusions, hampering the decision-making process for businesses.

According to a study conducted by Truth{set}, a leading data quality measurement company, “big” data can be wrong up to 60% of the time. This highlights the significant challenge of relying solely on data without proper validation and verification. Such inaccuracies can have profound consequences for businesses relying on these models for decision-making, leading to misguided strategies and missed opportunities.

MSW Enhanced Models: Unlocking the Full Potential

MSW Enhanced Models offer a transformative approach to brand data analytics. These models prioritize asking the questions that truly impact business decisions. For example, instead of focusing on the number of units sold, an MSW Enhanced Model might explore questions like “What hidden factors influenced the purchasing decisions of our target audience?” or “Which specific brand attributes drive consumer preference for my brand?” By delving into the depth of consumer behavior, these models uncover the who, what, when, where, why, and with whom behind each transaction. This level of granularity enables businesses to gain a comprehensive understanding of their customers and make informed decisions.

Consistent accuracy is a fundamental pillar of MSW Enhanced Models. By integrating MSW Preference™, these models can improve the prediction of actual volume with 100% accuracy. For example, a company that implemented MSW Enhanced Models with MSW Preference™ experienced a significant boost in their predictive accuracy, allowing them to allocate resources more effectively and optimize their marketing efforts. This improved accuracy instills confidence in businesses, enabling them to rely on the insights provided by these models to drive their strategies and achieve optimal results.

Furthermore, MSW Enhanced Models address the ever-changing consumer mindset. They recognize that brand perceptions and relationships drive consumer choices. By capturing and analyzing these factors, businesses can adapt their strategies to meet evolving consumer preferences and stay ahead of the competition.  For instance, an MSW Enhanced Model can help identify shifts in consumer perceptions of a brand and provide actionable insights to realign marketing campaigns accordingly, thereby increasing brand loyalty and driving revenue growth.

Bridging the Gap with Innovative Products

MSW offers a range of innovative products that complement and enhance traditional brand data analytics models. Let’s explore some of these products:

  1. Decoder™: This product acts as a guide in identifying and prioritizing the most relevant questions for a model. By measuring the who, what, when, where, why, and with whom of consumer behavior, Decoder™ ensures that businesses focus on the aspects that truly matter. For example, it can help businesses understand not only the purchase behavior but also the underlying motivations, preferences, and influencers that drive consumer decisions. By incorporating these insights, businesses can develop more targeted and effective marketing strategies.

Client Testimonial From Real Life in Use Example:

“after using Decoder to identify the KPI’s we needed to focus on and building those into our existing model, our product has achieved a wholesale rate of what I would consider directly in line with the numbers expected.  These are preliminary based on orders, but sales figures appear to be trending toward 102% of forecast.”

  1. TouchPoint™: Brand activation is a crucial aspect of any marketing strategy. TouchPoint™ ensures that brand activation aligns with strategic objectives by evaluating its impact on attention, branding, brand perceptions, relationships, and preferences. For instance, by analyzing the impact of different touchpoints on brand perceptions, businesses can optimize their marketing investments to create stronger brand associations and positive customer experiences. This helps build brand loyalty and increases the likelihood of repeat purchases.

Client Testimonial From Real Life in Use Example:

“For our three main L’Oréal brands it was found that a 1-point increase in MSW Brand Preference resulted in a 0.6% sales gain at retail.  Furthermore, the MSW advertising quality measurement ranked as the 2nd leading potential driver of incremental brand volume.”

  1. Brand Strength Monitor™: Tracking performance is essential for success. Brand Strength Monitor™ provides foresight and prescriptive analytics that help identify and quantify opportunities for growth. It measures awareness, consideration, cross-consideration, reasons for behavior, and the size of each brand relationship. For example, by tracking awareness levels and reasons for behavior, businesses can identify gaps in their brand messaging and make necessary adjustments to improve customer engagement and conversion rates.

Client Testimonial From Real Life in Use Example:

“Brand Relationship Analysis™ administered within the MSW tracking solution identified leverage points directing resource allocation and ongoing ROI measurement.  Insights enabled the Benefiber brand to move from third choice in market to #1.  Brand trial and market share doubled.”

These solutions include the same unique, evidence-based, brand-building metrics that provide connective tissue across a consistently predictive, go-to-market process:

Traditional brand data analytics models often fall short of delivering actionable insights. They lack the ability to ask the right questions, rely on incomplete data, and suffer from inaccuracies. However, MSW Enhanced Models bridge this gap by focusing on impactful questions, improving accuracy, and addressing consumer behavior. With innovative products like Decoder™, TouchPoint™, and Brand Strength Monitor™, businesses can unlock the full potential of their data analytics models and make informed decisions that drive growth. The future of brand data analytics lies in enhancing existing models to deliver the results businesses need to thrive in a dynamic market.  With MSW Enhanced Models, businesses can truly optimize their strategies and stay ahead in an ever-evolving business landscape.


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| Chart of The Week | Fast Casual Dining Restaurants: Change in Brand Preference

March 21st, 2023 Comments off

The MSW TBSM tracking service measures Brand Preference as one component of the survey.  Brand Preference was collected for approximately twenty major Fast Casual Restaurant brands in both Q1 2022 (among 1000 demographically and geographically balanced respondents) and Q1 2023 (among 500 similarly balanced respondents).  This week’s chart examines the five fast casual options that saw statistically significant trends in brand preference, both positive and negative, between the two time periods.

  • Brand Preference is the gold-standard metric for assessing a brand’s strength in the hearts and minds of consumers.  In fact, independent studies conducted by the Marketing Accountability Standards Board (MASB) found that preference fit sales and market share results better than any other metric studied.  This strong relationship between preference and sales has also been demonstrated in the Fast Casual Restaurant category (r = +0.94).
  • An analysis presented by Placer in mid 2022 indicated that after a strong 2021, the fast casual segment was seeing visitation trends drop off as inflation caused consumers to trade down to QSR.  A November 2022 poll by Decision Analyst reported 59% of Americans were eating out less and confirmed the trend of trade down to fast food outlets.
  • Against this backdrop, TBSM brand preference trends over the past year show that the option that gained the most in the past year was the “your favorite other brand” option.  While this result could represent an increase in variety seeking among restaurant goers in general, it could also reflect the aforementioned slide in the fast casual segment overall.

  • The one brand with the most impressive growth in brand preference over the past year is Jersey Mike’s Subs.  The 2.0 percentage-point growth in preference is particularly striking due to the brand starting at a relatively low level of 4.2% in Q1 of 2022.  This growth corresponds with in-market data from Earnest Insights which shows that Jersey Mike’s sales more than doubled between January of 2020 and August of 2022, a result that made them the growth leader in the fast casual industry.
    • While Jersey Mike’s preference was already strong among the Age 55+ segment, the chain’s growth in preference over the last year was fueled by increases among the younger age groups, particularly age 35 to 54.
    • Very strong preference growth for Jersey Mike’s was also seen among those respondents from the southern U.S.
  • While not quite statistically significant, preference increases of around 2 percentage-points were realized by the two largest players in the fast casual space, Chipotle and Panera Bread.
    • Chipotle recently reported strong growth in 2022, with overall revenue increasing by 14.4% – including 8.0% growth in comparable restaurant sales.
    • Sales data for the past year is not readily available for privately held Panera Bread.  But much has been made of the development of its digital channel which now accounts for 50% of sales, and its growth into urban markets with redesigned, smaller locations.
  • Brands that saw a statistically significant weakening in brand preference include Zaxby’s, Noodles & Company and Qdoba.
  • Noodles & Company experienced a difficult 2022 with a reported net loss of $3.3 million.
  • Qdoba and Zaxby’s are privately held and so recent financial information is limited.
    • However, Qdoba has been sold several times over the years, most recently in October 2022, and the chain has seen minimal growth in the number of locations over the past 5+ years.
    • While Zaxby’s has been growing outside its original stronghold in the southeastern U.S., perhaps the fierce competition in the chicken restaurant space and inflationary pressures have caused a bit of a bump in the road for the brand.
  • While not statistically significant, Jimmy John’s saw a 2 percentage-point drop in brand preference, suggesting that Jersey Mike’s success might be eating into its more established rival’s store of brand preference to some extent.

Spin the Wheel of Fortune

February 25th, 2023 Comments off

Spin the Wheel of Fortune: A Look at the Tradition in Switzerland and Germany

The wheel of fortune has been a popular symbol in many cultures for centuries. In Switzerland and Germany, this tradition is still alive and well, with various events featuring the spinning wheel as a centerpiece. In this article, we will explore the history and significance of the wheel of fortune in these two countries.

A Brief History

The wheel of fortune has its roots in ancient Roman mythology, where it was associated with the goddess Fortuna. In medieval times, it became a popular symbol in Europe, often depicted in art and literature. The wheel represented the fickleness of fate and the idea that one’s fortunes could change rapidly and unexpectedly.

In Switzerland and Germany, the wheel of fortune was often used in fairs and carnivals, where people would gather to watch performers, play games, and win prizes. The spinning wheel became a popular attraction, with people eagerly waiting for their turn to give it a spin.

Spin the Wheel of Fortune in Switzerland

In Switzerland, the wheel of fortune is known as the Glücksrad, which translates to “wheel of luck.” It is a common feature at carnivals, fairs, and other events. The wheel is usually divided into sections, each with a different prize or activity.

Participants can spin the wheel for a chance to win prizes such as toys, candy, or even cash. The more difficult the task or activity, the higher the prize. For example, one section of the wheel may require the participant to answer a trivia question correctly to win a prize, while another section may require them to perform a physical challenge.

The Glücksrad is also popular in Swiss casinos, where it is often used as a way to determine prizes or bonuses for players.Learn more about Wheel of Fortune in Switzerland at https://citeulike.org/de-ch/blog/gluecksrad-online/

Spin the Wheel of Fortune in Germany

In Germany, the wheel of fortune is known as the Glücksrad or Rad der Fortuna. It is a common feature at fairs, festivals, and other events. The wheel is usually divided into sections, each with a different prize or activity.

Participants can spin the wheel for a chance to win prizes such as toys, candy, or even a car. The more difficult the task or activity, the higher the prize. For example, one section of the wheel may require the participant to answer a trivia question correctly to win a prize, while another section may require them to perform a physical challenge.

The Rad der Fortuna is also popular in German casinos, where it is often used as a way to determine prizes or bonuses for players.


The wheel of fortune has a rich history and continues to be a popular tradition in Switzerland and Germany. Whether it’s at a carnival or a casino, the spinning wheel offers participants a chance to test their luck and win exciting prizes. So, if you ever find yourself in Switzerland or Germany, be sure to spin the wheel of fortune and see where fate takes you!

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